| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26866 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26866 |
| The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the \u201cSpanish Flu\u201d for the Coronavirus\u2019s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity | |
| Robert J. Barro; José F. Ursúa; Joanna Weng | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-03-23 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Pandemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 48 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 40 million, 2.1 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Development and Growth ; Growth and Productivity ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26866 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584539 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robert J. Barro,José F. Ursúa,Joanna Weng. The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the \u201cSpanish Flu\u201d for the Coronavirus\u2019s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26866.pdf（282KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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