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来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | 10.3386/w26902 |
来源ID | Working Paper 26902 |
Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus | |
James H. Stock | |
发表日期 | 2020-03-30 |
出版年 | 2020 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | This note lays out the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model of contagion, with a target audience of economists who want a framework for understanding the effects of social distancing and containment policies on the evolution of contagion and interactions with the economy. A key parameter, the asymptomatic rate (the fraction of the infected that are not tested under current guidelines), is not well estimated in the literature because tests for the coronavirus have been targeted at the sick and vulnerable, however it could be estimated by random sampling of the population. In this simple model, different policies that yield the same transmission rate β have the same health outcomes but can have very different economic costs. Thus, one way to frame the economics of shutdown policy is as finding the most efficient policies to achieve a given β, then determining the path of β that trades off the economic cost against the cost of excess lives lost by overwhelming the health care system. |
主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19 |
URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26902 |
来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584575 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | James H. Stock. Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus. 2020. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
w26902.pdf(456KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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