G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w26902
来源IDWorking Paper 26902
Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus
James H. Stock
发表日期2020-03-30
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要This note lays out the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model of contagion, with a target audience of economists who want a framework for understanding the effects of social distancing and containment policies on the evolution of contagion and interactions with the economy. A key parameter, the asymptomatic rate (the fraction of the infected that are not tested under current guidelines), is not well estimated in the literature because tests for the coronavirus have been targeted at the sick and vulnerable, however it could be estimated by random sampling of the population. In this simple model, different policies that yield the same transmission rate β have the same health outcomes but can have very different economic costs. Thus, one way to frame the economics of shutdown policy is as finding the most efficient policies to achieve a given β, then determining the path of β that trades off the economic cost against the cost of excess lives lost by overwhelming the health care system.
主题Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w26902
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584575
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James H. Stock. Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus. 2020.
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