| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26915 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26915 |
| A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature | |
| Javier Bianchi; Enrique G. Mendoza | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-03-30 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Sudden Stops are financial crises defined by a large, sudden current-account reversal. They occur in both advanced and emerging economies and result in deep recessions, collapsing asset prices, and real exchange-rate depreciations. They are preceded by economic expansions, current-account deficits, credit booms, and appreciated asset prices and real exchange rates. Fisherian models (i.e. models with credit constraints linked to market prices) explain these stylized facts as an outcome of Irving Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism. On the normative side, these models feature a pecuniary externality that provides a foundation for macroprudential policy (MPP). We review the stylized facts of Sudden Stops, the evidence on MPP use and effectiveness, and the findings of the literature on Fisherian models. Quantitatively, Fisherian amplification is strong and optimal MPP reduces sharply the size and frequency of crises, but it is also complex and potentially time-inconsistent, and simple MPP rules are less effective. We also provide a new MPP analysis incorporating investment. Using a constant debt-tax policy, we construct a crisis probability-output frontier showing that there is a tradeoff between financial stability and long-run output (i.e., reducing the probability of crises reduces long-run output). |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; International Economics ; International Macroeconomics ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26915 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584588 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Javier Bianchi,Enrique G. Mendoza. A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26915.pdf（676KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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