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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w26918
来源IDWorking Paper 26918
Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?
Veronica Guerrieri; Guido Lorenzoni; Ludwig Straub; Iván Werning
发表日期2020-04-06
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要We present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: supply shocks that trigger changes in aggregate demand larger than the shocks themselves. We argue that the economic shocks associated to the COVID-19 epidemic—shutdowns, layoffs, and firm exits—may have this feature. In one-sector economies supply shocks are never Keynesian. We show that this is a general result that extend to economies with incomplete markets and liquidity constrained consumers. In economies with multiple sectors Keynesian supply shocks are possible, under some conditions. A 50% shock that hits all sectors is not the same as a 100% shock that hits half the economy. Incomplete markets make the conditions for Keynesian supply shocks more likely to be met. Firm exit and job destruction can amplify the initial effect, aggravating the recession. We discuss the effects of various policies. Standard fiscal stimulus can be less effective than usual because the fact that some sectors are shut down mutes the Keynesian multiplier feedback. Monetary policy, as long as it is unimpeded by the zero lower bound, can have magnified effects, by preventing firm exits. Turning to optimal policy, closing down contact-intensive sectors and providing full insurance payments to affected workers can achieve the first-best allocation, despite the lower per-dollar potency of fiscal policy.
主题Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w26918
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584591
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Veronica Guerrieri,Guido Lorenzoni,Ludwig Straub,et al. Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?. 2020.
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