Gateway to Think Tanks
来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | 10.3386/w26918 |
来源ID | Working Paper 26918 |
Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages? | |
Veronica Guerrieri; Guido Lorenzoni; Ludwig Straub; Iván Werning | |
发表日期 | 2020-04-06 |
出版年 | 2020 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | We present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: supply shocks that trigger changes in aggregate demand larger than the shocks themselves. We argue that the economic shocks associated to the COVID-19 epidemic—shutdowns, layoffs, and firm exits—may have this feature. In one-sector economies supply shocks are never Keynesian. We show that this is a general result that extend to economies with incomplete markets and liquidity constrained consumers. In economies with multiple sectors Keynesian supply shocks are possible, under some conditions. A 50% shock that hits all sectors is not the same as a 100% shock that hits half the economy. Incomplete markets make the conditions for Keynesian supply shocks more likely to be met. Firm exit and job destruction can amplify the initial effect, aggravating the recession. We discuss the effects of various policies. Standard fiscal stimulus can be less effective than usual because the fact that some sectors are shut down mutes the Keynesian multiplier feedback. Monetary policy, as long as it is unimpeded by the zero lower bound, can have magnified effects, by preventing firm exits. Turning to optimal policy, closing down contact-intensive sectors and providing full insurance payments to affected workers can achieve the first-best allocation, despite the lower per-dollar potency of fiscal policy. |
主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19 |
URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26918 |
来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584591 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Veronica Guerrieri,Guido Lorenzoni,Ludwig Straub,et al. Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?. 2020. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
w26918.pdf(284KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。