| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26962 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26962 |
| Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered | |
| Òscar Jordà; Moritz Schularick; Alan M. Taylor | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-04-13 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Business cycles are costlier and stabilization policies could be more beneficial than widely thought. This paper introduces a new test to show that all business cycles are asymmetric and resemble “mini-disasters.” By this we mean that growth is pervasively fat-tailed and non-Gaussian. Using long-run historical data, we show empirically that this is true for advanced economies since 1870. Focusing on peacetime eras, we develop a tractable local projection framework to estimate consumption growth paths for normal and financial-crisis recessions. Introducing random coefficient local projections (RCLP) we get an easy and transparent mapping from the estimates to a calibrated simulation model with disasters of variable severity. Simulations show that substantial welfare costs arise not just from the large rare disasters, but also from the smaller but more frequent mini-disasters in every cycle. On average, and in post-WW2 data, even with low risk aversion, households would sacrifice about 15 percent of consumption to avoid such cyclical fluctuations. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26962 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584635 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Òscar Jordà,Moritz Schularick,Alan M. Taylor. Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26962.pdf（804KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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