全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w26981
来源ID	Working Paper 26981
	A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown
	Fernando E. Alvarez; David Argente; Francesco Lippi
发表日期	2020-04-13
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	We study the optimal lockdown policy for a planner who wants to control the fatalities of a pandemic while minimizing the output costs of the lockdown. We use the SIR epidemiology model and a linear economy to formalize the planner's dynamic control problem. The optimal policy depends on the fraction of infected and susceptible in the population. We parametrize the model using data on the COVID19 pandemic and the economic breadth of the lockdown. The quantitative analysis identifies the features that shape the intensity and duration of the optimal lockdown policy. Our baseline parametrization is conditional on a 1% of infected agents at the outbreak, no cure for the disease, and the possibility of testing. The optimal policy prescribes a severe lockdown beginning two weeks after the outbreak, covers 60% of the population after a month, and is gradually withdrawn covering 20% of the population after 3 months. The intensity of the lockdown depends on the gradient of the fatality rate as a function of the infected, and on the assumed value of a statistical life. The absence of testing increases the economic costs of the lockdown, and shortens the duration of the optimal lockdown which ends more abruptly. Welfare under the optimal policy with testing is higher, equivalent to a one-time payment of 2% of GDP.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; COVID-19
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w26981
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584653
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fernando E. Alvarez,David Argente,Francesco Lippi. A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown. 2020.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w26981.pdf（446KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览