| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26983 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26983 |
| COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty | |
| Scott R. Baker; Nicholas Bloom; Steven J. Davis; Stephen J. Terry | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-04-13 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed. We identify three indicators – stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys – that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty measures. We use these indicators to document and quantify the enormous increase in economic uncertainty in the past several weeks. We also illustrate how these forward-looking measures can be used to assess the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, we feed COVID-induced first-moment and uncertainty shocks into an estimated model of disaster effects developed by Baker, Bloom and Terry (2020). Our illustrative exercise implies a year-on-year contraction in U.S. real GDP of nearly 11 percent as of 2020 Q4, with a 90 percent confidence interval extending to a nearly 20 percent contraction. The exercise says that about half of the forecasted output contraction reflects a negative effect of COVID-induced uncertainty. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy ; Industrial Organization ; Regulatory Economics ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26983 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584655 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Scott R. Baker,Nicholas Bloom,Steven J. Davis,et al. COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26983.pdf（427KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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