| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26987 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26987 |
| COVID-19 and The Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters | |
| Sydney C. Ludvigson; Sai Ma; Serena Ng | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-04-13 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The outbreak of COVID-19 has significantly disrupted the economy. This paper attempts to quantify the macroeconomic impact of costly and deadly disasters in recent US history, and to translate these estimates into an analysis of the likely impact of COVID-19. A costly disaster series is constructed over the sample 1980:1-2020:04 and the dynamic impact of a disaster shock on economic activity and on uncertainty is studied using a VAR. While past natural disasters are local in nature and come and go quickly, COVID-19 is a global, multi-period event. We therefore study the dynamic responses to a sequence of large disaster shocks. Even in a fairly conservative case where COVID-19 is a 5-month shock with its magnitude calibrated by the cost of March 2020 Coronavirus relief packages, the shock is forecast to lead to a cumulative loss in industrial production of 20% and in service sector employment of nearly 39% or 55 million jobs over the next 12 months. For each month that a shock of a given magnitude is prolonged from the base case, heightened macro uncertainty persists for another month. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Poverty and Wellbeing ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26987 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584659 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sydney C. Ludvigson,Sai Ma,Serena Ng. COVID-19 and The Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26987.pdf（285KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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