| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27013 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27013 |
| An Alternative Explanation for the \u201cFed Information Effect\u201d | |
| Michael D. Bauer; Eric T. Swanson | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-04-20 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are a standard method of measuring monetary policy shocks. However, some recent studies have documented puzzling effects of these shocks on private-sector forecasts of GDP, unemployment, or inflation that are opposite in sign to what standard macroeconomic models would predict. This evidence has been viewed as supportive of a “Fed information effect” channel of monetary policy, whereby an FOMC tightening (easing) communicates that the economy is stronger (weaker) than the public had expected. We show that these empirical results are also consistent with a “Fed response to news” channel, in which incoming, publicly available economic news causes both the Fed to change monetary policy and the private sector to revise its forecasts. We provide substantial new evidence that distinguishes between these two channels and strongly favors the latter; for example, (i) regressions that include the previously omitted public economic news, (ii) a new survey that we conduct of Blue Chip forecasters, and (iii) high-frequency financial market responses to FOMC announcements all indicate that the Fed and private sector are simply responding to the same public news, and that there is little if any role for a “Fed information effect”. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27013 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584685 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael D. Bauer,Eric T. Swanson. An Alternative Explanation for the \u201cFed Information Effect\u201d. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27013.pdf（402KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
