| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27038 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27038 |
| Managing Intelligence: Skilled Experts and AI in Markets for Complex Products | |
| Jonathan Gruber; Benjamin R. Handel; Samuel H. Kina; Jonathan T. Kolstad | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-04-27 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In numerous high stakes markets skilled experts play a key role in facilitating consumer choice of complex products. New artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are increasingly being used to augment expert decisions. We study the role of technology and expertise in the market for health insurance, where consumer choices are widely known to be sub-optimal. Our analysis leverages the large-scale implementation of an AI-based decision support tool in a private Medicare exchange where consumers are randomized to skilled agents over time. We find that, prior to AI-based technology, skilled experts in this market exhibit the same type of inconsistent behavior found in previous studies of individual choices, costing consumers $1260 on average. The addition of AI-based decision support improves outcomes by $278 on average and substantially reduces heterogeneity in broker performance. Experts efficiently synthesize private information, incorporating AI-based recommendations along dimensions that are well suited to AI (e.g. total expected patient costs), but overruling AI-based recommendations along dimensions for which humans are better suited (e.g. specifics of doctor networks). As a result, switching plans, an ex-post measure of plan satisfaction, is meaningfully lower for agents making AI-based recommendations. While AI is a complement to skill on average, we find that it is a substitute across the skill distribution; lower quality agents provide better recommendations with AI than the top agents did without it. Overall productivity rises, with the introduction of decision support associated with a 21% reduction in call time for enrollment. |
| 主题 | Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; Labor Economics ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Industrial Organization ; Market Structure and Firm Performance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27038 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584710 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jonathan Gruber,Benjamin R. Handel,Samuel H. Kina,et al. Managing Intelligence: Skilled Experts and AI in Markets for Complex Products. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27038.pdf（1222KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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