| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27043 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27043 |
| Demographic Perspectives on Mortality of Covid-19 and Other Epidemics | |
| Joshua R. Goldstein; Ronald D. Lee | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-04-27 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | What would a hypothetical one million US deaths in the Covid-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? To put estimates of Covid-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes one million US lives, with results scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 3 years) and remaining life-years (12.3 years per death), which for one million deaths can be valued at six to 10 trillion dollars. The age-patterns of Covid-19 mortality observed in other countries are remarkably similar and exhibit the typical rate of increase by age of normal mortality. The scenario of one million Covid-19 deaths is similar in scale to the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than the Spanish Flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the Covid-19 deaths will be concentrated in months rather than spread out over decades. |
| 主题 | Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27043 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584715 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joshua R. Goldstein,Ronald D. Lee. Demographic Perspectives on Mortality of Covid-19 and Other Epidemics. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27043.pdf（311KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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