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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w27049
来源IDWorking Paper 27049
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities during the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919
Robert J. Barro
发表日期2020-04-27
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要A key issue for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is whether non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) retard death rates. Good information about these effects comes from flu-related excess deaths in large U.S. cities during the second wave of the Great Influenza Pandemic, September 1918-February 1919. NPIs, as measured by an extension of Markel, et al. (2007), are in three categories: school closings, prohibitions on public gatherings, and quarantine/isolation. Although an increase in NPIs flattened the curve in the sense of reducing the ratio of peak to average death rates, the estimated effect on overall deaths is small and statistically insignificant. One possibility is that the NPIs were not more successful in curtailing overall mortality because the average duration of each type of NPI was only around one month. Another possibility is that NPIs mainly delay deaths rather than eliminating them.
主题Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w27049
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584721
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Robert J. Barro. Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities during the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919. 2020.
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