| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27059 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27059 |
| Internal and External Effects of Social Distancing in a Pandemic | |
| Maryam Farboodi; Gregor Jarosch; Robert Shimer | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-04-27 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a quantitative framework for exploring how individuals trade off the utility benefit of social activity against the internal and external health risks that come with social interactions during a pandemic. We calibrate the model to external targets and then compare its predictions with daily data on social activity, fatalities, and the estimated effective reproduction number R(t) from the COVID-19 pandemic in March-June 2020. While the laissez- faire equilibrium is consistent with much of the decline in social activity that we observed in US data, optimal policy further imposes immediate and highly persistent social distancing. Notably, neither equilibrium nor optimal social distancing is extremely restrictive, in the sense that the effective reproduction number never falls far below 1. The expected cost of COVID-19 in the US is substantial, $12,700 in the laissez-faire equilibrium and $8,100 per person under an optimal policy. Optimal policy generates this large welfare gain by shifting the composition of costs from fatalities to persistent social distancing. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Public Economics ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27059 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584731 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Maryam Farboodi,Gregor Jarosch,Robert Shimer. Internal and External Effects of Social Distancing in a Pandemic. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27059.pdf（1268KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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