| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27102 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27102 |
| Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model | |
| Daron Acemoglu; Victor Chernozhukov; Iván Werning; Michael D. Whinston | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-04 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the “young”, “the middle-aged” and the “old”. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy. For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic applied to the US, we find that optimal policies differentially targeting risk/age groups significantly outperform optimal uniform policies and most of the gains can be realized by having stricter lockdown policies on the oldest group. Intuitively, a strict and long lockdown for the most vulnerable group both reduces infections and enables less strict lockdowns for the lower-risk groups. We also study the impacts of group distancing, testing and contract tracing, the matching technology and the expected arrival time of a vaccine on optimal policies. Overall, targeted policies that are combined with measures that reduce interactions between groups and increase testing and isolation of the infected can minimize both economic losses and deaths in our model. |
| 主题 | Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27102 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584775 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Daron Acemoglu,Victor Chernozhukov,Iván Werning,et al. Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27102.pdf（1500KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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