| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| DOI | 10.3386/w27121
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 27121
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| COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion |
| Robert S. Pindyck
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| 发表日期 | 2020-05-11
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| 出版年 | 2020
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | I use a simple SIR model, augmented to include deaths, to elucidate how pandemic progression is affected by the control of contagion, and examine the key trade-offs that underlie policy design. I illustrate how the cost of reducing the "reproduction number" R0 depends on how it changes the infection rate, the total and incremental number of deaths, the duration of the pandemic, and the possibility and impact of a second wave. Reducing R0 reduces the number of deaths, but extends the duration (and hence economic cost) of the pandemic, and it increases the fraction of the population still susceptible at the end, raising the possibility of a second wave. The benefit of reducing R0 is largely lives saved, and the incremental number of lives saved rises as R0 is reduced. But using a VSL estimate to value those lives is problematic. |
| 主题 | Econometrics
; Public Economics
; Health, Education, and Welfare
; Health
; COVID-19
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27121
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584794
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Robert S. Pindyck. COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion. 2020.
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文件名：
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w27121.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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