| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27128 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27128 |
| Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities | |
| Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Charles I. Jones | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-11 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and various countries and regions to estimate a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible futures for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening. Our current baselinemortality rate (IFR) is assumed to be 1.0% but we recognize there is substantial uncertainty about this number. Our model fits the death data equally well with alternative mortality rates of 0.5% or 1.2%, so this parameter is unidentified in our data. However, its value matters enormously for the extent to which various places can relax social distancing without spurring a resurgence of deaths. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27128 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584801 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde,Charles I. Jones. Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27128.pdf（1404KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
