| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27137 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27137 |
| COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock | |
| Jose Maria Barrero; Nicholas Bloom; Steven J. Davis | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-11 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Drawing on firm-level expectations at a one-year forecast horizon in the Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU), we construct novel, forward-looking reallocation measures for jobs and sales. These measures rise sharply after February 2020, reaching rates in April that are 2.4 (3.9) times the pre-COVID average for jobs (sales). We also draw on special questions in the April SBU to quantify the near-term impact of the COVID-19 shock on business staffing. We find 3 new hires for every 10 layoffs caused by the shock and estimate that 42 percent of recent layoffs will result in permanent job loss. Our survey evidence aligns well with anecdotal evidence of large pandemic-induced demand increases at some firms, with contemporaneous evidence on gross business formation, and with a sharp pandemic-induced rise in equity return dispersion across firms. After developing the evidence, we consider implications of our evidence for the economic outlook and for policy responses to the pandemic. Unemployment benefit levels that exceed worker earnings, policies that subsidize employee retention, occupational licensing restrictions, and regulatory barriers to business formation will impede reallocation responses to the COVID-19 shock. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Public Economics ; Taxation ; Labor Economics ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Unemployment and Immigration ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27137 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584810 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jose Maria Barrero,Nicholas Bloom,Steven J. Davis. COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27137.pdf（400KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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