| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27167 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27167 |
| Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty | |
| Scott R. Baker; Nicholas Bloom; Stephen J. Terry | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-18 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Uncertainty rises in recessions and falls in booms. But what is the causal relationship? We construct cross-country panel data on stock market returns to proxy for first- and second-moment shocks and instrument these with natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and political shocks. Our IV regression results reveal a robust negative short-term impact of second moments (uncertainty) on growth. Employing multiple VAR estimation approaches, relying on a range of identifying assumptions, also reveals a negative impact of uncertainty on growth. Finally, we show that these results are reproducible in a conventional micro-macro business cycle model with time-varying uncertainty. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Behavioral Economics ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27167 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584840 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Scott R. Baker,Nicholas Bloom,Stephen J. Terry. Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27167.pdf（793KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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