G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w27167
来源IDWorking Paper 27167
Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty
Scott R. Baker; Nicholas Bloom; Stephen J. Terry
发表日期2020-05-18
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要Uncertainty rises in recessions and falls in booms. But what is the causal relationship? We construct cross-country panel data on stock market returns to proxy for first- and second-moment shocks and instrument these with natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and political shocks. Our IV regression results reveal a robust negative short-term impact of second moments (uncertainty) on growth. Employing multiple VAR estimation approaches, relying on a range of identifying assumptions, also reveals a negative impact of uncertainty on growth. Finally, we show that these results are reproducible in a conventional micro-macro business cycle model with time-varying uncertainty.
主题Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Behavioral Economics ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; COVID-19
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w27167
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584840
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Scott R. Baker,Nicholas Bloom,Stephen J. Terry. Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty. 2020.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
w27167.pdf(793KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Scott R. Baker]的文章
[Nicholas Bloom]的文章
[Stephen J. Terry]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Scott R. Baker]的文章
[Nicholas Bloom]的文章
[Stephen J. Terry]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Scott R. Baker]的文章
[Nicholas Bloom]的文章
[Stephen J. Terry]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: w27167.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。