| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27191 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27191 |
| COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows | |
| Cem Çakmaklı; Selva Demiralp; Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan; Sevcan Yesiltas; Muhammed A. Yildirim | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-18 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy in the absence of vaccinations. We use a framework that combines a multi-sector SIR model with data on international and inter-sectoral trade to estimate the effects of a joint collapse in domestic and foreign demand. We calibrate our framework to Turkey and estimate the COVID-19 related output losses for each sector. Domestic infection rates feed directly into sectoral demand shocks, where sectoral supply is affected both from sick workers and lockdowns. Sectoral demand shocks additionally capture foreign infection rates through foreign demand. We use real-time credit card purchases to pin down the magnitude of these domestic and foreign demand shocks. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under an early and globally coordinated full lockdown of 39 days, amounting to a loss of 5.8 percent of GDP in the small open economy. To illustrate the importance of foreign demand, we compare the economic costs under globally coordinated vs. uncoordinated lockdown scenarios and incorporate the role of fiscal stimulus packages. Our findings illustrate that the economic drag in the rest of the world due to ineffective lockdown measures increases the economic toll in the small open economy by up to 2 percent of GDP. Meanwhile the stimulus packages abroad, by increasing foreign demand for small open economy’s goods, reduce costs by 0.5 percentage points. We further show that the lack of a similar large fiscal package in the small open economy can be remedied by capital inflows into sectors with large losses. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; International Economics ; International Factor Mobility ; International Macroeconomics ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27191 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584864 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cem Çakmaklı,Selva Demiralp,Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan,et al. COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27191.pdf（788KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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