| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27218 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27218 |
| Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing Pandemic Risks | |
| Harrison Hong; Neng Wang; Jinqiang Yang | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-25 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an epidemic model and link valuations to infections via an asset-pricing framework with vaccines. Infections lower earnings growth but firms can mitigate damages. We estimate a large reproduction number R0 and transmission volatility for COVID-19. Using these estimates, we assess the accuracy of deterministic approximations based on R0. Our model generates predictions consistent with data: unexpected infection resurgence, non-monotonic mitigation policies, and higher price-to-earnings ratios during a pandemic. Valuations would be significantly lower absent mitigation and a high vaccine arrival rate. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Corporate Finance ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27218 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584890 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Harrison Hong,Neng Wang,Jinqiang Yang. Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing Pandemic Risks. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27218.pdf（872KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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