| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27228 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27228 |
| The Macroeconomics of a Pandemic: A Minimalist Model | |
| Luis Felipe Céspedes; Roberto Chang; Andrés Velasco | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-25 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We build a minimalist model of the macroeconomics of a pandemic, with two essential components. The first is productivity-related: if the virus forces firms to shed labor beyond a certain threshold, productivity suffers. The second component is a credit market imperfection: because lenders cannot be sure a borrower will repay, they only lend against collateral. Expected productivity determines collateral value; in turn, collateral value can limit borrowing and productivity. As a result, adverse shocks have large magnification effects, in an unemployment and asset price deflation doom loop. There may be multiple equilibria, so that pessimistic expectations can push the economy to a bad equilibrium with limited borrowing and low employment and productivity. The model helps identify policies to fight the effects of the pandemic. Traditional expansionary fiscal policy has no beneficial effects, while cutting interest rates has a limited effect if the initial real interest rate is low. By contrast, several unconventional policies, including wage subsidies, helicopter drops of liquid assets, equity injections, and loan guarantees, can keep the economy in a full-employment, high-productivity equilibrium. Such policies can be fiscally expensive, so their implementation is feasible only with ample fiscal space or emergency financing from abroad. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; International Macroeconomics ; Public Economics ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27228 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584900 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Luis Felipe Céspedes,Roberto Chang,Andrés Velasco. The Macroeconomics of a Pandemic: A Minimalist Model. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27228.pdf（222KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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