G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w27232
来源IDWorking Paper 27232
The Hammer and the Scalpel: On the Economics of Indiscriminate versus Targeted Isolation Policies during Pandemics
Varadarajan V. Chari; Rishabh Kirpalani; Christopher Phelan
发表日期2020-05-25
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要We develop a simple dynamic economic model of epidemic transmission designed to be consistent with widely used SIR biological models of the transmission of epidemics, while incorporating economic benefits and costs as well. Our main finding is that targeted testing and isolation policies deliver large welfare gains relative to optimal policies when these tools are not used. Specifically, we find that when testing and isolation are not used, optimal policy delivers a welfare gain equivalent to a 0.6% permanent increase in consumption relative to no intervention. The welfare gain arises because under the optimal policy, the planner engineers a sharp recession that reduces aggregate output by about 40% for about 3 months. This sharp contraction in economic activity reduces the rate of transmission and reduces cumulative deaths by about 0.1%. When testing policies are used, optimal policy delivers a welfare gain equivalent to a 3% permanent increase in consumption. The associated recession is milder in that aggregate output declines by about 15% and cumulative deaths are reduced by .3%. Much of this welfare gain comes from isolating infected individuals. When individuals who are suspected to be infected are isolated without any testing, optimal policy delivers a welfare gain equivalent to a 2% increase in permanent consumption.
主题Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; Public Goods ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w27232
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584904
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Varadarajan V. Chari,Rishabh Kirpalani,Christopher Phelan. The Hammer and the Scalpel: On the Economics of Indiscriminate versus Targeted Isolation Policies during Pandemics. 2020.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
w27232.pdf(881KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Varadarajan V. Chari]的文章
[Rishabh Kirpalani]的文章
[Christopher Phelan]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Varadarajan V. Chari]的文章
[Rishabh Kirpalani]的文章
[Christopher Phelan]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Varadarajan V. Chari]的文章
[Rishabh Kirpalani]的文章
[Christopher Phelan]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: w27232.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。