全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w27234
来源ID	Working Paper 27234
	Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?
	Robert E. Hall; Marianna Kudlyak
发表日期	2020-05-25
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	A remarkable fact about the historical US business cycle is that, after unemployment reached its peak in a recession, and a recovery begins, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate is stable at around one tenth of the current level of unemployment. We document this fact in a companion paper, Hall and Kudlyak (2020a). Here, we consider explanations for the surprising consistency of recoveries. We show that the evolution of the labor market from recession to recovery involves more than the direct effect of persistent unemployment of job-losers from the recession shock -- unemployment during the recovery is above normal for people who did not lose jobs during the recession. We explore models of the labor market's self-recovery that imply gradual working off of unemployment following a recession shock. We emphasize the feedback from high unemployment to the forces driving job creation. These models also explain why the recovery of market-wide unemployment is so much slower than the rate at which individual unemployed workers find new jobs. The reasons include the fact that the path that individual job-losers follow back to stable employment often includes several brief interim jobs.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Labor Economics ; Unemployment and Immigration
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w27234
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584906
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Robert E. Hall,Marianna Kudlyak. Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?. 2020.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w27234.pdf（5126KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览