| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27244 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27244 |
| Reopening Scenarios | |
| David Baqaee; Emmanuel Farhi; Michael J. Mina; James H. Stock | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-25 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use a five-age epidemiological model, combined with 66-sector economic accounting, to address a variety of questions concerning the economic reopening. We calibrate/estimate the model using contact survey data and data on weekly historical individual actions and non-pharmaceutical interventions in the weeks ending March 8 – May 16, 2020. Going forward, we model a decision-maker (governor) as following reopening guidelines like those proposed by the White House and the CDC. The sectoral accounting, combined with information on personal proximity and ability to work from home by sector, make it possible to construct a GDP-to-Risk index of which sectors provide the greatest increment in GDP per marginal increase in R0. Through simulations, we find that: a strong economic reopening is possible; a “smart” reopening, preferencing some sectors over others, makes only modest improvements over a broad reopening; and all this hinges on retaining strong restrictions on non-work social contacts. If non-work contacts – going to bars, shopping without social distancing and masks, large group gatherings, etc. – return only half-way to the pre-COVID-19 baseline, the current decline in deaths reverses leading to a second wave of business closures. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27244 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584916 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David Baqaee,Emmanuel Farhi,Michael J. Mina,et al. Reopening Scenarios. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27244.pdf（1628KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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