| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27275 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27275 |
| Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets | |
| Cristina Arellano; Yan Bai; Gabriel P. Mihalache | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-01 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The coronavirus pandemic has severely impacted emerging markets by generating a large death toll, deep recessions, and a wave of sovereign defaults. We study this compound health, economic, and debt crisis and its mitigation by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a sovereign default model. The epidemic leads to an urgent need for social distancing measures, a large drop in economic activity, and a protracted debt crisis. The presence of default risk restricts fiscal space and presents emerging markets with a trade-off between mitigation of the pandemic and fiscal distress. A quantitative analysis of our model accounts well for the dynamics of deaths, social distance measures, and sovereign spreads in Latin America. In the model, the welfare cost of the pandemic is higher because of financial market frictions: about a third of the cost comes from default risk, compared with a version of the model with perfect financial markets. We study debt relief programs through counterfactuals and find a compelling case for their implementation, as they deliver large social gains. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy ; International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27275 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584946 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cristina Arellano,Yan Bai,Gabriel P. Mihalache. Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27275.pdf（528KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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