| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27308 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27308 |
| Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory | |
| George-Marios Angeletos; Zhen Huo; Karthik A. Sastry | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-08 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We document a new fact about expectations: in response to the main shocks driving the business cycle, expectations underreact initially but overshoot later on. We show how previous, seemingly conflicting, evidence can be understood as different facets of this fact. We finally explain what the cumulated evidence means for macroeconomic theory. There is little support for theories emphasizing underextrapolation or two close cousins of it, cognitive discounting and level-K thinking. Instead, the evidence favors the combination of dispersed, noisy information and over-extrapolation. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27308 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584979 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | George-Marios Angeletos,Zhen Huo,Karthik A. Sastry. Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27308.pdf（1170KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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