| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27310 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27310 |
| Predicting Social Tipping and Norm Change in Controlled Experiments | |
| James Andreoni; Nikos Nikiforakis; Simon Siegenthaler | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-08 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The ability to predict when societies will replace one social norm for another can have significant implications for welfare, especially when norms are detrimental. A popular theory poses that the pressure to conform to social norms creates tipping thresholds which, once passed, propel societies toward an alternative state. Predicting when societies will reach a tipping threshold, however, has been a major challenge due to the lack of experimental data for evaluating competing models. We present evidence from a large-scale lab experiment designed to test the theoretical predictions of a threshold model for social tipping. In our setting, societal preferences change gradually, forcing individuals to weigh the benefit from deviating from the norm against the cost from not conforming to the behavior of others. We show that the model predicts accurately social tipping and norm change in 96% of experimental societies. Strikingly, when individuals determine the cost for non-conformity themselves, they set it too high, causing the persistence of detrimental norms. We also show that instigators of change tend to be more risk tolerant and to dislike conformity more. Our findings demonstrate the value of threshold models for understanding social tipping in a broad range of social settings and designing policies to promote welfare. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Public Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27310 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584981 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | James Andreoni,Nikos Nikiforakis,Simon Siegenthaler. Predicting Social Tipping and Norm Change in Controlled Experiments. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27310.pdf（427KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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