| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27319 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27319 |
| Broad Bracketing for Low Probability Events | |
| Shereen J. Chaudhry; Michael Hand; Howard Kunreuther | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-08 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Individuals tend to underprepare for rare, catastrophic events because of biases in risk perception. A simple form of broad bracketing—presenting the cumulative probability of loss over a longer time horizon—has the potential to alleviate these barriers to risk perception and increase protective actions such as purchasing flood insurance. However, it is an open question whether broad bracketing effects last over time: There is evidence that descriptive probability information is ignored when decisions are made from “experience” (repeatedly and in the face of feedback), which describes many protective decisions. Across six incentive-compatible experiments with high stakes, we find that the broad bracketing effect does not disappear or change size when decisions are made from experience. We also advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying broad bracketing, finding that, while cumulative probability size is a strong driver of the effect, this is dampened for larger brackets which lead people to be less sensitive to probability size. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Behavioral Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27319 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584990 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shereen J. Chaudhry,Michael Hand,Howard Kunreuther. Broad Bracketing for Low Probability Events. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27319.pdf（1259KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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