| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27349 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27349 |
| How and When to Use the Political Cycle to Identify Advertising Effects | |
| Sarah Moshary; Bradley T. Shapiro; Jihong Song | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-15 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A central challenge in estimating the causal effect of TV advertising on demand is isolating quasi-random variation in advertising. Political advertising, which topped $14 billion in expenditures in 2016, has been proposed as a plausible source of such variation and thus a candidate for an instrumental variable. We provide a critical evaluation of how and where this instrument is valid and useful across categories. We characterize the conditions under which political cycles theoretically identify the causal effect of TV advertising on demand, highlight threats to the exclusion restriction and monotonicity condition, and suggest a specification to address the most serious concerns. We test the strength of the first stage category-by-category for 274 product categories. For most categories, weak-instrument robust inference is recommended, as first-stage F-statistics are less than 10 for 221 of 274 product categories in our benchmark specification. The largest first-stage F-statistics occur in categories that typically advertise locally, such as automobile dealerships and restaurants. Failure to use the suggested specification leads to results that suggest violations of exclusion and monotonicity in a significant number of categories. Finally, we conduct a case study of the auto industry. Despite a very strong first stage, the IV estimate for this category is imprecise. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Industrial Organization ; Industry Studies ; Other ; Accounting, Marketing, and Personnel |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27349 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585022 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sarah Moshary,Bradley T. Shapiro,Jihong Song. How and When to Use the Political Cycle to Identify Advertising Effects. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27349.pdf（3361KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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