| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27369 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27369 |
| Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve\u2019s Policy Strategy and Communications | |
| Michael D. Bordo; Andrew T. Levin; Mickey D. Levy | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-15 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The U.S. economy currently faces a truly extraordinary degree of uncertainty as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve could begin highlighting alternative scenarios to illustrate key risks to the economic outlook, and such scenarios could inform the Fed’s policy strategy and public communications. In this paper, we present a set of illustrative scenarios, including a baseline scenario with a rapid but incomplete recovery this year (an upward-tilting checkmark), a benign scenario in which an effective cure or vaccine becomes available and facilitates a nearly complete recovery by mid-2021, and a severely adverse scenario involving persistently high unemployment and disinflationary pressures. Insights into these scenarios can be drawn from key historical episodes, including the Spanish flu, the Great Depression, the end of World War II, and the global financial crisis. We conclude by identifying key challenges that the Federal Reserve might face in adjusting its monetary policy and emergency credit facilities under each of these alternative scenarios. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27369 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585041 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael D. Bordo,Andrew T. Levin,Mickey D. Levy. Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve\u2019s Policy Strategy and Communications. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27369.pdf（481KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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