| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27373 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27373 |
| Implications of Heterogeneous SIR Models for Analyses of COVID-19 | |
| Glenn Ellison | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-15 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper provides a quick survey of results on the classic SIR model and variants allowing for heterogeneity in contact rates. It notes that calibrating the classic model to data generated by a heterogeneous model can lead to forecasts that are biased in several ways and to understatement of the forecast uncertainty. Among the biases are that we may underestimate how quickly herd immunity might be reached, underestimate differences across regions, and have biased estimates of the impact of endogenous and policy-driven social distancing. |
| 主题 | Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27373 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585044 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Glenn Ellison. Implications of Heterogeneous SIR Models for Analyses of COVID-19. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27373.pdf（575KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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