| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27396 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27396 |
| Predictable Financial Crises | |
| Robin Greenwood; Samuel G. Hanson; Andrei Shleifer; Jakob Ahm Sørensen | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-22 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is associated with about a 40% probability of entering a financial crisis within the next three years. This compares with a roughly 7% probability in normal times, when neither credit nor asset price growth has been elevated. Our evidence cuts against the view that financial crises are unpredictable “bolts from the sky” and points toward the Kindleberger-Minsky view that crises are the byproduct of predictable, boom-bust credit cycles. The predictability we document favors macro-financial policies that “lean against the wind” of credit market booms. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics ; Behavioral Finance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27396 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585069 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robin Greenwood,Samuel G. Hanson,Andrei Shleifer,et al. Predictable Financial Crises. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27396.pdf（991KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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