| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27403 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27403 |
| The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis | |
| Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas; Philippe Martin; Todd E. Messer | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-22 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Despite a formal ‘no-bailout clause’, we estimate significant net present value transfers from the European Union to Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, ranging from roughly 0.5% (Ireland) to 43% (Greece) of 2011 output during the recent Eurozone crisis. We propose a model to analyze and understand bailouts in a monetary union, and the large observed differences across countries. We characterize bailout size and likelihood as a function of the economic fundamentals (economic activity, debt-to-gdp ratio, default costs). Our model embeds a ‘Southern view’ of the crisis (transfers did not help) and a ‘Northern view’ (transfers weaken fiscal discipline). While a stronger no-bailout commitment reduces risk-shifting, it may not be optimal from the perspective of the creditor country, even ex-ante, if it increases the risk of immediate insolvency for high debt countries. Hence, the model provides a potential justification for the often decried policy of ‘kicking the can down the road’. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27403 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585076 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,Philippe Martin,Todd E. Messer. The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27403.pdf（1164KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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