| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27412 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27412 |
| Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices | |
| Nicolas L. Bottan; Ricardo Perez-Truglia | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-22 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Home price expectations play a central role in macroeconomics and finance. However, there is little direct evidence on how these expectations affect market choices. We provide the first causal evidence based on a large-scale, high-stakes, and naturally occurring field experiment in the United States. We mailed letters with information on trends in home prices to 57,910 homeowners who had listed their homes on the market. Collectively, these homes were worth $34 billion. We randomized the information contained in the mailing to create non-deceptive, exogenous variation in the subjects home price expectations. We then used rich administrative data to measure the effects of these information shocks on the subjects’ market choices. We found that, consistent with economic theory, higher home price expectations caused a reduction in the probability of selling the home. These effects were highly statistically significant, economically large in magnitude, and robust to a number of sharp checks. Our results indicated that market choices were highly elastic to expectations: a 1 percentage point increase in home price expectations caused a 2.63 percentage point reduction in the probability of selling the property within 12 weeks. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Data Collection ; Experimental Design ; Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Real Estate |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27412 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585085 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nicolas L. Bottan,Ricardo Perez-Truglia. Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27412.pdf（1681KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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