| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27428 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27428 |
| Revisiting the Hypothesis of High Discounts and High Unemployment | |
| Paolo Martellini; Guido Menzio; Ludo Visschers | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-29 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We revisit the hypothesis that cyclical fluctuations in unemployment are caused by shocks to the discount rate. We use a rich search-theoretic model of the labor market in which the UE, EU and EE rates are all endogenous. Analytically, we show that an increase in the discount rate lowers the UE rate and, under some natural conditions, it lowers the EU rate. Quantitatively, we show that an increase in the discount rate from 4 to 10% generates a 3.5% decline in the UE rate and a 6% decline in the EU rate. The response of the unemployment rate is minuscule. These findings are at odds with the actual behavior of the US labor market over the business cycle, which features a negative comovement between the UE and EU rates and large unemployment fluctuations. We show that aggregate productivity shocks generate the correct comovement between the UE and EU rates, as well as large unemployment fluctuations. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27428 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585101 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Paolo Martellini,Guido Menzio,Ludo Visschers. Revisiting the Hypothesis of High Discounts and High Unemployment. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27428.pdf（941KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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