| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27431 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27431 |
| The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data | |
| Raj Chetty; John N. Friedman; Nathaniel Hendren; Michael Stepner; The Opportunity Insights Team | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-29 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We report daily statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, employment rates, and other key indicators disaggregated by ZIP code, industry, income group, and business size. Using these data, we study how COVID-19 affected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its impacts. We first show that high-income individuals reduced spending sharply in mid-March 2020, particularly in areas with high rates of COVID-19 infection and in sectors that require in-person interaction. This reduction in spending greatly reduced the revenues of small businesses in affluent ZIP codes. These businesses laid off many of their employees, leading to widespread job losses especially among low-wage workers in affluent areas. High-wage workers experienced a “V-shaped” recession that lasted a few weeks, whereas low-wage workers experienced much larger job losses that persisted for several months. Building on this diagnostic analysis, we estimate the causal effects of policies aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of COVID-19. State-ordered reopenings of economies had small impacts on spending and employment. Stimulus payments to low-income households increased consumer spending sharply, but little of this increased spending flowed to businesses most affected by the COVID-19 shock, dampening its impacts on employment. Paycheck Protection Program loans increased employment at small businesses by only 2%, implying a cost of $377,000 per job saved. These results suggest that traditional macroeconomic tools – stimulating aggregate demand or providing liquidity to businesses – have diminished capacity to restore employment when consumer spending is constrained by health concerns. During a pandemic, it may be more fruitful to mitigate economic hardship through social insurance. More broadly, this analysis shows how public statistics constructed from private sector data can support many research and policy analyses without compromising privacy, providing a new tool for empirical macroeconomics. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Public Economics ; Labor Economics ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27431 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585104 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Raj Chetty,John N. Friedman,Nathaniel Hendren,et al. The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27431.pdf（1739KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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