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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w27482
来源IDWorking Paper 27482
Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession
Francis X. Diebold
发表日期2020-07-06
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要We study the real-time signals provided by the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index of Business conditions (ADS) for tracking economic activity at high frequency. We start with exit from the Great Recession, comparing the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs to a "final" late-vintage chronology. We then consider entry into the Pandemic Recession, again tracking the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs. ADS swings widely as its underlying economic indicators swing widely, but the emerging ADS path as of this writing (late June) indicates a return to growth in May. The trajectory of the nascent recovery, however, is highly uncertain (particularly as COVID-19 spreads in the South and West) and could be revised or eliminated as new data arrive.
主题Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; COVID-19
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w27482
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585154
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Francis X. Diebold. Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession. 2020.
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