| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27482 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27482 |
| Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession | |
| Francis X. Diebold | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-07-06 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the real-time signals provided by the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index of Business conditions (ADS) for tracking economic activity at high frequency. We start with exit from the Great Recession, comparing the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs to a "final" late-vintage chronology. We then consider entry into the Pandemic Recession, again tracking the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs. ADS swings widely as its underlying economic indicators swing widely, but the emerging ADS path as of this writing (late June) indicates a return to growth in May. The trajectory of the nascent recovery, however, is highly uncertain (particularly as COVID-19 spreads in the South and West) and could be revised or eliminated as new data arrive. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27482 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585154 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Francis X. Diebold. Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27482.pdf（4965KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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