全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Rational Sentiments and Economic Cycles

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w27472
来源ID	Working Paper 27472
	Rational Sentiments and Economic Cycles
	Maryam Farboodi; Péter Kondor
发表日期	2020-07-13
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	We propose a rational model of endogenous cycles generated by the two-way interaction between credit market sentiments and real outcomes. Sentiments are high when most lenders optimally choose lax lending standards. This leads to low interest rates and high output growth, but also to the deterioration of future credit application quality. When the quality is sufficiently low, lenders endogenously switch to tight standards, i.e. sentiments become low. This implies high credit spreads and low output, but a gradual improvement in the quality of applications, which eventually triggers a shift back to lax lending standards and the cycle continues. The equilibrium cycle might feature a long boom, a lengthy recovery, or a double-dip recession. It is generically different from the optimal cycle as atomistic lenders ignore their effect on the composition of the pool of borrowers. Carefully chosen macro-prudential or countercyclical monetary policy often improves the decentralized equilibrium cycle.
主题	Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w27472
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585169
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Maryam Farboodi,Péter Kondor. Rational Sentiments and Economic Cycles. 2020.

条目包含的文件
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w27472.pdf（1104KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览