| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27566 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27566 |
| Projecting Unemployment Durations: A Factor-Flows Simulation Approach With Application to the COVID-19 Recession | |
| Gabriel Chodorow-Reich; John Coglianese | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-07-20 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment. Step 1: estimate individual transition hazards across employment, temporary layoff, permanent layoff, quitter, entrant, and out of the labor force, with each hazard depending on an aggregate component as well as an individual's labor force history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of individual labor force histories. Applying our approach to the July Blue Chip forecast of the COVID-19 recession, we project that 1.6 million workers laid off in April 2020 remain unemployed six months later. Total long-term unemployment rises thereafter and eventually reaches more 4.5 million individuals unemployed for more than 26 weeks and almost 2 million individuals unemployed for more than 46 weeks. Long-term unemployment rises even more in a more pessimistic recovery scenario, but remains below the level in the Great Recession due to a high amount of labor market churn. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Labor Economics ; Unemployment and Immigration ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27566 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585239 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gabriel Chodorow-Reich,John Coglianese. Projecting Unemployment Durations: A Factor-Flows Simulation Approach With Application to the COVID-19 Recession. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27566.pdf（644KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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