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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w27664
来源IDWorking Paper 27664
Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from a Four Data Set Project
Robert A. Moffitt
发表日期2020-08-10
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要There is a large literature on earnings and income volatility in labor economics, household finance, and macroeconomics. One strand of that literature has studied whether individual earnings volatility has risen or fallen in the U.S. over the last several decades. There are strong disagreements in the empirical literature on this important question, with some studies showing upward trends, some downward trends, and some flat trends. Some studies have suggested that the differences are the result of using flawed survey data instead of more accurate administrative data. This paper provides an overview of a project attempting to reconcile these findings with four different data sets and six different data series--three survey and three administrative data series, including two which match survey respondent data to their administrative data. Using common specifications, measures of volatility, and other treatments of the data, the papers show almost uniformly a lack of any significant long-term trend in male earnings volatility over the last 30 years. Moreover, the survey and the administrative data almost entirely agree on that long-term stability when the comparison is done properly. Several possible explanations for the differing finds in past work are suggested by the papers. The stability of earnings volatility raises many questions for future research on trends in the U.S. labor market.
主题Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Labor Economics ; Labor Compensation
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w27664
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585336
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Robert A. Moffitt. Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from a Four Data Set Project. 2020.
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