| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27665 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27665 |
| Valuation of Long-Term Property Rights under Political Uncertainty | |
| Zhiguo He; Maggie Rong Hu; Zhenping Wang; Vincent Yao | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-08-10 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We empirically analyze the pricing of political uncertainty in long-term property rights, guided by a theoretical model of housing assets subject to contract extension in the remote future. To identify exposure to political uncertainty, we exploit a unique variation around land lease extension protection beyond 2047 in Hong Kong's housing market due to the historical arrangements under the “One Country, Two Systems” design. A reduced-form approach reveals that relative to properties that have been promised an extension protection, those with legally unprotected leases granted by the current Hong Kong government are sold at a substantial discount of around 8%. Similar contracts issued during the colonial era suffer an additional discount of about 8% due to their reneging risk. Our parsimonious model matches well these empirical discounts across long-term lease horizons, and the estimated structural parameters imply that to extend their leases homeowners expect about an additional 20% ground rent after 2047. The discount is higher when people's confidence declines and where residents feel more uncertain of the city's future, but lower when the transaction involves a mainland buyer and a local seller. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Financial Markets ; Other ; Law and Economics ; History ; Financial History ; Development and Growth ; Country Studies ; Economic Systems ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Real Estate |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27665 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585337 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhiguo He,Maggie Rong Hu,Zhenping Wang,et al. Valuation of Long-Term Property Rights under Political Uncertainty. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27665.pdf（992KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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