全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w27691
来源ID	Working Paper 27691
	Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve
	Michael D. Bordo; Joseph G. Haubrich
发表日期	2020-08-17
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	Does the yield curve's ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates are low, as in the current global environment? In this paper we build on recent econometric work by Shi, Phillips and Hurn that detects changes in the causal impact of the yield curve and relate that to the level of interest rates. We explore the issue using historical data going back to the 19th century for the US and more recent data for the UK, Germany, and Japan. This paper is similar in spirit to Ramey and Zubairy (2018) who look at the government spending multiplier in times of low interest rates.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Financial Economics ; History ; Macroeconomic History
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w27691
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585363
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Michael D. Bordo,Joseph G. Haubrich. Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve. 2020.