| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27697 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27697 |
| Peak China Housing | |
| Kenneth S. Rogoff; Yuanchen Yang | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-08-17 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | China’s real estate has been a key engine of its sustained economic expansion. This paper argues, however, that even before the Covid-19 shock, a decades-long housing boom had given rise to severe price misalignments and regional supply-demand mismatches, making an adjustment both necessary and inevitable. We make use of newly available and updated data sources to analyze supply-demand conditions in the fast-moving Chinese economy. The imbalances are then compared to benchmarks from other economies. We conclude that the sector is quite vulnerable to a sustained aggregate growth shock, such as Covid-19 might pose. In our baseline calibration, using input-output tables and taking account of the very large footprint of housing construction and real-estate related sectors, the adjustment to a decline in housing activity can easily trim a cumulative 5-10 percent from the level of output (over a period of years). |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Finance ; Financial Economics ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Real Estate |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27697 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585369 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kenneth S. Rogoff,Yuanchen Yang. Peak China Housing. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27697.pdf（1861KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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