| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27735 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27735 |
| Moonshots, Investment Booms, and Selection Bias in the Transmission of Cultural Traits | |
| David Hirshleifer; Joshua Plotkin | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-08-31 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Biased information about the payoffs received by others can drive innovation, risk-taking, and investment booms. We study this cultural phenomenon using a model based on two premises. The first is a tendency for large successes, and the actions that lead to them, to be more salient to onlookers than small successes or failures. The second premise is selection neglect—the failure of observers to adjust for biased observation. In our model, each firm in sequence chooses to adopt or to reject a project that has two possible payoffs, one positive and one negative. The probability of success is higher in the high state of the world than in the low state. Each firm observes the payoffs received by past adopters before making its decision, but there is a chance that an adopter's outcome will be censored, especially if the payoff was negative. Failure to account for biased censorship causes firms to become overly optimistic, leading to irrational booms in adoption. Booms may eventually collapse, or may last forever. We describe these effects as a form of cultural evolution with adoption or rejection viewed as traits transmitted between firms. Evolution here is driven not only by differential copying of successful traits, but also by cognitive reasoning about which traits are more likely to succeed—quantified using the Price Equation to decompose the effects of mutation pressure and evolutionary selection. This account provides a new explanation for investment booms, merger and IPO waves, and waves of technological innovation. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Households and Firms ; General Equilibrium ; Economics of Information ; Financial Economics ; Corporate Finance ; Behavioral Finance ; Other ; Accounting, Marketing, and Personnel ; Development and Growth ; Innovation and R& ; D |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27735 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585407 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David Hirshleifer,Joshua Plotkin. Moonshots, Investment Booms, and Selection Bias in the Transmission of Cultural Traits. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27735.pdf（594KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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