全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Limitations on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Forward Guidance in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w27748
来源ID	Working Paper 27748
	Limitations on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Forward Guidance in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic
	Andrew T. Levin; Arunima Sinha
发表日期	2020-08-31
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	We examine the effectiveness of forward guidance at the effective lower bound (ELB) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Survey evidence underscores the myopia of professional forecasters at the initial stages of the pandemic and the extraordinary dispersion of their recent forecasts. Moreover, financial markets are now practically certain that U.S. short-term nominal interest rates will remain at the ELB for the next several years; consequently, forward guidance would have to refer to a much longer time horizon than in previous experience. To analyze the effects of these issues, we consider a canonical New-Keynesian model with three modifications: (1) expectations formation incorporates the mechanisms that have been proposed for addressing the forward guidance puzzle; (2) the central bank has imperfect credibility in making longer-horizon commitments regarding the path of monetary policy; and (3) the central bank may not have full knowledge of the true structure of the economy. In this framework, providing substantial near-term monetary stimulus hinges on making promises of relatively extreme overshooting of output and inflation in subsequent years, and hence forward guidance has only tenuous net benefits and may even be counterproductive.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy ; COVID-19
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w27748
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585420
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andrew T. Levin,Arunima Sinha. Limitations on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Forward Guidance in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic. 2020.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w27748.pdf（278KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览