| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27813 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27813 |
| The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19 | |
| Dhaval M. Dave; Andrew I. Friedson; Drew McNichols; Joseph J. Sabia | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-09-14 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Between August 7 and August 16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual motorcycle rally. Large crowds, coupled with minimal mask-wearing and social distancing by attendees, raised concerns that this event could serve as a COVID-19 “super-spreader.” This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on social distancing and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that (i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and (ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events. Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell. Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade. Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows. Descriptive evidence suggests these effects may be muted in states with stricter mitigation policies (i.e., restrictions on bar/restaurant openings, mask-wearing mandates). We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of as much as $12.2 billion. |
| 主题 | Subnational Fiscal Issues ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27813 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585485 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dhaval M. Dave,Andrew I. Friedson,Drew McNichols,et al. The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27813.pdf（1837KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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