| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27829 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27829 |
| Pandemics, Vaccines and an Earnings Damage Function | |
| Harrison Hong; Jeffrey D. Kubik; Neng Wang; Xiao Xu; Jinqiang Yang | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-09-21 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We derive a parsimonious model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. Using measures of expected damage from industry-level earnings forecast revisions, we estimate this model with nonlinear least squares and identifying restrictions related to forecast rationality. Forecasts in mid-May 2020 imply an earnings crash and lower earnings growth until a vaccine arrives in 1.48 years (95% CI [0.61, 5.88]). We extend our framework to account for time-varying vaccine arrival rates. Mid-August 2020 forecasts imply a vaccine arrival in 0.61 years (95% CI [0.35, 1.06]), which is due to positive vaccine news as opposed to fiscal or monetary policy news. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Financial Markets ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Corporate Finance ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27829 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585501 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Harrison Hong,Jeffrey D. Kubik,Neng Wang,et al. Pandemics, Vaccines and an Earnings Damage Function. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27829.pdf（903KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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