| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27840 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27840 |
| Globalization and Pandemics | |
| Pol Antràs; Stephen J. Redding; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-09-21 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose a theory of the relationship between globalization and pandemics. We start by documenting the importance of international trade for the diffusion of infections in several pandemics throughout history. We also show that trade is closely intertwined with travel. Motivated by this evidence, we build a framework in which business travel facilitates trade according to a constant elasticity gravity equation mediated by mobility frictions. In turn, travel leads to human interactions that transmit disease, as in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. We highlight three novel interactions between these two mechanisms. First, trade-motivated travel generates an epidemiological externality across countries. Therefore, reductions in international frictions affect the evolution of the epidemic in each country, and the condition for a pandemic to occur. Second, if infections lead to deaths, or reduce individual labor supply, we establish a general equilibrium social distancing effect, whereby increases in relative prices in unhealthy countries reduce travel to those countries. Third, if agents internalize the threat of infection, we show that their behavioral responses lead to a reduction in travel that is larger for higher-trade-cost locations, and hence leads to an initial fall in the ratio of trade to GDP in the early stages of the epidemic, before a subsequent recovery. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Trade ; International Factor Mobility ; International Macroeconomics ; Globalization and International Relations ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27840 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585511 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pol Antràs,Stephen J. Redding,Esteban Rossi-Hansberg. Globalization and Pandemics. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27840.pdf（2314KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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