| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27872 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27872 |
| A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions | |
| Sebastián Fanelli; Ludwig Straub | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-09-28 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study a real small open economy with two key ingredients: (i) partial segmentation of home and foreign bond markets and (ii) a pecuniary externality that makes the real exchange rate excessively volatile in response to capital flows. Partial segmentation implies that, by intervening in the bond markets, the central bank can affect the exchange rate and the spread between home- and foreign-bond yields. Such interventions allow the central bank to address the pecuniary externality, but they are also costly, as foreigners make carry-trade profits. We analytically characterize the optimal intervention policy that solves this trade-off: (a) the optimal policy leans against the wind, stabilizing the exchange rate; (b) it involves smooth spreads but allows exchange rates to jump; (c) it partly relies on “forward guidance”, with non-zero interventions even after the shock has subsided; (d) it requires credibility, in that central banks do not intervene without commitment. Finally, we shed light on the global consequences of widespread interventions, using a multi-country extension of our model. We find that, left to themselves, countries over-accumulate reserves, reducing welfare and leading to inefficiently low world interest rates. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27872 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585546 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sebastián Fanelli,Ludwig Straub. A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27872.pdf（613KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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