| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27882 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27882 |
| A Cost\/Benefit Analysis of Clinical Trial Designs for COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates | |
| Donald A. Berry; Scott Berry; Peter Hale; Leah Isakov; Andrew W. Lo; Kien Wei Siah; Chi Heem Wong | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-10-05 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We compare and contrast the expected duration and number of infections and deaths averted among several designs for clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccine candidates, including traditional randomized clinical trials and adaptive and human challenge trials. Using epidemiological models calibrated to the current pandemic, we simulate the time course of each clinical trial design for 504 unique combinations of parameters, allowing us to determine which trial design is most effective for a given scenario. A human challenge trial provides maximal net benefits—averting an additional 1.1M infections and 8,000 deaths in the U.S. compared to the next best clinical trial design—if its set-up time is short or the pandemic spreads slowly. In most of the other cases, an adaptive trial provides greater net benefits. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27882 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585555 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Donald A. Berry,Scott Berry,Peter Hale,et al. A Cost\/Benefit Analysis of Clinical Trial Designs for COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27882.pdf（549KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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